Tag Archives: unpredictable

The most unpredictable season?

It is the Premier League season that has absolutely everyone scratching their heads.

Champions Chelsea are down in 14th. Leicester, bottom at Christmas final year, are prime significantly less than 12 months later.

In fact, as this image below shows, the old cliche that anybody can beat any person, has by no means been much more apt. Undoubtedly, there have been some strange results.

Graphic showing every team beating each other

But just how uncommon has this season actually been and what have been the important factors in creating it so unpredictable? BBC Sport crunches the numbers to uncover out.

Chelsea go from champions to chumps

Chelsea’s start off to the season is the worst of any reigning Premier League champion.

In reality, Blackburn are the only other side to have picked up fewer than 20 points in the first 15 games of a title defence.

Chelsea and Manchester United have mounted the best starts to a defence, each registering 40 points in 2005-06 and 1993-94 respectively.

Points by defending champions in 1st 15 games

Season Team Points Season Team Points

2005-06

Chelsea

40

1993-94

Man Utd

40

2000-01

Man Utd

36

2011-12

Man Utd

36

2006-07

Chelsea

35

1994-95

Man Utd

34

2009-ten

Man Utd

34

2003-04

Man Utd

34

2014-15

Man City

33

2012-13

Man City

33

2007-08

Man Utd

33

1999-00

Man Utd

33

2002-03

Arsenal

32

2004-05

Arsenal

31

1997-98

Man Utd

31

2008-09

Man Utd

31

2010-11

Chelsea

29

1996-97

Man Utd

26

1998-99

Arsenal

25

2013-14

Man Utd

22

2001-02

Man Utd

21

1995-96

Blackburn

18

2015-16

Chelsea

15

Tight at the leading

This is reasonably unusual. There are just six points among prime side Leicester and fifth-placed Tottenham – it is only been that close one other time in the previous ten seasons.

Gap chart

Massive boys get beaten

Jose Mourinho

Last season’s prime two of Chelsea and Manchester City have lost a combined total of 12 games this term – the highest more than the previous 10 seasons.

Defeats in 1st 15 games for earlier season’s leading two

Season Initial Second Total

2015-16

Chelsea (8)

Man City (four)

12

2014-15

Man City (2)

Liverpool (six)

8

2013-14

Man Utd (5)

Man City (4)

9

2012-13

Man City ()

Man Utd (3)

three

2011-12

Man Utd (1)

Chelsea (4)

five

2010-11

Chelsea (four)

Man Utd ()

four

2009-10

Man Ud (three)

Liverpool (5)

8

2008-09

Man Utd (two)

Chelsea (2)

4

2007-08

Man Utd (two)

Chelsea (two)

4

2006-07

Chelsea (two)

Man Utd (1)

3

Away the lads

Percentage of away wins in the Premier League

Teams are loving an away day this season.

There have been 51 away victories from 150 Premier League games this term – that is 34% of fixtures.

Of the 9,130 games in Premier League history, 27.25% have ended with a win for the visitors.

New boys bucking the trend?

Promoted teams picture

The three promoted teams of Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich are all at the moment out of the relegation zone, which you may think is uncommon.

Lately, it’s not been that uncommon.

In truth, it has happened twice in the preceding five seasons. Newcastle United, West Brom and Blackpool had been above the drop zone at this point in 2010-11, as had been QPR, Norwich and Swansea in 2011-12.

Even so, these are the only 3 occasions the feat has occurred in the previous decade, and rarely do a single of these sides beat the champions, as Bournemouth did when winning 1- at Chelsea on Saturday.

Will Leicester win the league?

The team that is best in early December is most most likely to go on to claim the title, right?

If history is any indicator, Leicester City have truly got practically a 50-50 opportunity of causing a enormous shock and becoming champions.

Exactly where does the team top soon after 15 games finish?

Season Team Final position Season Group Final position

1993

Norwich

3rd

2005

Chelsea

1st

1994

Man Utd

1st

2006

Chelsea

1st

1995

Man Utd

2nd

2007

Man Utd

1st

1996

Newcastle

2nd

2008

Arsenal

3rd

1997

Arsenal

3rd

2009

Liverpool

2nd

1998

Man Utd

2nd

2010

Chelsea

1st

1999

Aston Villa

6th

2011

Man Utd

1st

2000

Man Utd

1st

2012

Man City

1st

2001

Man Utd

1st

2013

Man Utd

1st

2002

Liverpool

2nd

2014

Arsenal

3rd

2003

Arsenal

2nd

2015

Chelsea

1st

2004

Chelsea

2nd

2016

Leicester

?

In Premier League history, the team prime after 15 games has gone on to win the title 47.8% of the time. And that rises to 72.7% more than the previous 11 seasons.

Manchester United have been leading following 15 games eight instances – and have converted that into a title on six occasions

But of the eight distinct clubs to be prime at this stage, only three – Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea – have gone on to win the title.

Or is it exact same old, exact same old?

It’s all really intriguing, but then once again, a fast comparison of the table this year with how it ended last season suggests tiny has changed.

Current top six

Four of the current best six completed in the best six last season…

Last season's top six

And the existing bottom three…

Current bottom three

Effectively they all just about survived final season…

Last season's three to avoid the drop

And even in mid-table…

Current mid-table

There’s a familiar appear to how it finished up final term, with 4 of the same six teams occupying the middle six positions.

Last season's mid-table

So maybe the world of the Premier League hasn’t been totally turned upside down just yet.

Agen Sabung Ayam – Why cannot we stop extremists? Simply because they are unpredictable

Agen Sabung Ayam

A police fence cordons off the entrance and blocks the view of the Bataclan music venue in Paris, scene of a single of the worst attacks on 13 November. Photograph: Malte Christians/dpa/Corbis

Officials in France and Belgium are beneath pressure from frightened and angry citizens, who want to know how their safety solutions let men they knew to be involved in extremism carry out Friday’s attacks in Paris.

At least 3 of nine people now identified to have been involved in the Paris strikes had been identified by safety services as prospective threats.

Ismail Omar Mostefai, 29, involved in the Bataclan concert hall attack, had been listed in 2010 for reported radicalisation. He still managed to make it to Turkey, and almost certainly Syria, in 2013.

Samy Amimour, a 28-year-old from Drancy, north of Paris, had been under official investigation because October 2012 and was the topic of an international arrest warrant given that late 2013, when he too is believed to have gone to Syria.

Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the Belgian suspected mastermind of the attacks, has boasted publicly of entering and leaving the nation to plot terrorist attacks. He was involved in a series of planned attacks there that had been foiled by the police final January, but escaped to Syria at least six months ago, officials think.

Sadly, these sorts of lapses are not new. Mohammed Merah, who killed seven folks in 2012, was not just on the radar of nearby safety services in his home town of Toulouse, but was really interviewed on his return from a training camp in Pakistan just months just before his shooting spree. An officer accepted his story of searching for a wife in the unstable south Asian state.

Other services have made equivalent errors. US authorities came across the trail of the 9/11 hijackers but failed to connect the clues. MI5 had come across Mohammad Sidique Khan, the leader of the 7/7 bombers, years ahead of that strike. The service had been intermittently tracking Michael Adebowale and fellow Muslim convert Michael Adebolajo for years before they murdered Lee Rigby, a British soldier, in London in 2013. The older of the two Tsarnaev brothers who bombed the Boston Marathon that year was investigated by the FBI but deemed harmless.

1 explanation for these failures is the nature of Islamic militancy, particularly given the resources necessary to watch a single person. It requires dozens of officers to mount 24/7 surveillance of 1 person and hours to listen to phone calls or comb other communications information. Even the best resourced solutions as a result have to prioritise.

Safety solutions have evolved different techniques of undertaking this. Most grade the threat from an person, focusing on those who are deemed higher threat. These not regarded as an imminent danger are barely monitored.

But extremists, like everyone else, do not behave predictably. Radicalisation is not a linear, uniform process. An individual regarded peripheral and harmless can quickly turn into much more threatening. Likewise, an individual who is noticed as quite unsafe can, for a variety of reasons, move to significantly less threatening activities or even cease their involvement in extremism altogether.

Indeed, as Stephen Grey, an professional on espionage, points out, it is these former militants who are often the greatest sources for intelligence solutions.

“Of course there is a enormous worth in surveillance but… receiving good human intelligence from within a radicalised neighborhood is absolutely key. Some of the ideal sources have been the people who have been close in but who don’t like the way factors are building. Counter-terrorist campaigns have turned when people are ready to literally shop their brother or husband,” stated Grey, the author of the recently published book The New Spymasters.

In the case of Mohammed Merah, an apparent abandoning of jihadi activism may possibly have been a deliberate ploy to throw the spooks off his track. Or it could have been genuine but temporary. The interest of Adebelajo, a single of the killers of Rigby, in violent or even non-violent activism appears to have waxed and waned more than the years.

If providing safety officials higher powers of surveillance may help in some approaches, it is far from a silver bullet, however. Agencies are already swamped by vast quantities of information. Human intelligence remains the most worthwhile tool – and human errors the largest supply of failures.